![]() Watchers started dropping about 12 hours before the auction ended, when the price was at about 60% of final sale price. They adapt: they un-watch the item before it ends. Watchers is linear for the first part of the auction, then bargain hunters start to realize they’re not going to get a steal. This stays pretty constant throughout the auction until it rises in the last 2 days I interpret that as bargain hunters bailing (un-watching) while bidding heats up. Ratio of price:watchers (strength & frequency of casual interest) ![]() A larger spike here would indicate a desperate sniper. That’s the sniper, who must overshoot because there’s only one chance to snipe. Only in the last hour does the dollars per bid spike again, and only in relative terms - small change that happens very quickly. Just like a regular auction, the price increase per new bid is smaller later in the auction, though the absolute price increase is large thanks to lots of bids. Then bids trend smaller for 2 days, dropping to an average of $7 per bid. Ratio of price:bids (strength & frequency of purchase intent)īecause bidding is idle in days 2 and 3, this ratio starts and stays high ($17 of item price per 1 bid). Nobody bids upfront, probably from past experience: each person knows nobody else will bid, so they just watch too. Visible interest accumulates for 2.5 days, peaking at 11 watchers per 1 bid, then steadily drops to 1.5:1 at sale.Īs the end approaches, there are far fewer lookie-loos relative to participants - most have either bid or left (un-watched) - and the ratio sinks. What’s noteworthy? Ratio of watchers:bids (casual interest:purchase intent)įor most buyers, this auction was a 2-stage process: find & watch, wait a couple days, then monitor & bid. ![]() Last-minute emotions didn’t affect the price muchħ days may not be long enough for all prospects to discover May be an untapped strategy in bidding at 70% of sale price to “stake a claim” Specifics: eBay, 7 day duration, start $0.01, no reserve, $167.50 sale, digital camera, July 2009 30-second Summaryģ0-50% of prospects are trolling for a bargain that probably doesn’t exist I collected stats from my first sell-side eBay transaction: number of watchers, number of bids, and current item price.
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